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"corr": 0.206 }, { "lag": 16, "corr": 0.202 }, { "lag": 17, "corr": 0.201 }, { "lag": 18, "corr": 0.201 }, { "lag": 19, "corr": 0.202 }, { "lag": 20, "corr": 0.202 }, { "lag": 21, "corr": 0.207 }, { "lag": 22, "corr": 0.215 }, { "lag": 23, "corr": 0.225 }, { "lag": 24, "corr": 0.233 } ], "first_half": { "best_lag_months": 2, "best_correlation": 0.732 }, "second_half": { "best_lag_months": 0, "best_correlation": 0.657 }, "stable": true }, { "driver": "fred_uo_hvac", "driver_label": "Ventilation, heating & AC", "component": "hvac_equip", "component_label": "AC & refrigeration equipment", "weight": 0.1, "months": 404, "span": [ "1993-01", "2026-08" ], "best_lag_months": 8, "best_correlation": 0.56, "profile": [ { "lag": 0, "corr": 0.461 }, { "lag": 1, "corr": 0.48 }, { "lag": 2, "corr": 0.495 }, { "lag": 3, "corr": 0.507 }, { "lag": 4, "corr": 0.519 }, { "lag": 5, "corr": 0.533 }, { "lag": 6, "corr": 0.548 }, { "lag": 7, "corr": 0.556 }, { "lag": 8, "corr": 0.56 }, { "lag": 9, "corr": 0.556 }, { "lag": 10, "corr": 0.548 }, { "lag": 11, "corr": 0.534 }, { "lag": 12, "corr": 0.514 }, { "lag": 13, "corr": 0.495 }, { "lag": 14, "corr": 0.476 }, { "lag": 15, "corr": 0.455 }, { "lag": 16, "corr": 0.43 }, { "lag": 17, "corr": 0.399 }, { "lag": 18, "corr": 0.362 }, { "lag": 19, "corr": 0.326 }, { "lag": 20, "corr": 0.287 }, { "lag": 21, "corr": 0.252 }, { "lag": 22, "corr": 0.222 }, { "lag": 23, "corr": 0.19 }, { "lag": 24, "corr": 0.159 } ], "first_half": { "best_lag_months": 0, "best_correlation": 0.541 }, "second_half": { "best_lag_months": 9, "best_correlation": 0.715 }, "stable": false }, { "driver": "fred_uo_turbines", "driver_label": "Turbines & generators", "component": "generators", "component_label": "Generator sets & turbines", "weight": 0.09, "months": 404, "span": [ "1993-01", "2026-08" ], "best_lag_months": 24, "best_correlation": 0.303, "profile": [ { "lag": 0, "corr": 0.101 }, { "lag": 1, "corr": 0.135 }, { "lag": 2, "corr": 0.163 }, { "lag": 3, "corr": 0.183 }, { "lag": 4, "corr": 0.2 }, { "lag": 5, "corr": 0.209 }, { "lag": 6, "corr": 0.21 }, { "lag": 7, "corr": 0.208 }, { "lag": 8, "corr": 0.201 }, { "lag": 9, "corr": 0.186 }, { "lag": 10, "corr": 0.167 }, { "lag": 11, "corr": 0.151 }, { "lag": 12, "corr": 0.136 }, { "lag": 13, "corr": 0.122 }, { "lag": 14, "corr": 0.113 }, { "lag": 15, "corr": 0.111 }, { "lag": 16, "corr": 0.115 }, { "lag": 17, "corr": 0.125 }, { "lag": 18, "corr": 0.143 }, { "lag": 19, "corr": 0.165 }, { "lag": 20, "corr": 0.188 }, { "lag": 21, "corr": 0.22 }, { "lag": 22, "corr": 0.249 }, { "lag": 23, "corr": 0.275 }, { "lag": 24, "corr": 0.303 } ], "first_half": { "best_lag_months": 24, "best_correlation": 0.352 }, "second_half": { "best_lag_months": 24, "best_correlation": 0.189 }, "stable": true } ], "weight_covered": 0.45, "weight_stable": 0.21, "verdict": "A stable lead was found for 2 of 4 mappings by the pre-registered gate -- see caveats before treating this as forecasting evidence.", "gate": "A lead counts only if the best lag agrees in sign and within 3 months across both sample halves. Stated before the numbers were computed.", "caveats": [ { "key": "contemporaneous_not_lead", "text": "The recovered best lag is contemporaneous, not a lead (Electrical equipment -> Power & distribution transformers at 0 month(s)). This study exists to decide whether a forward model is buildable at 12-48 month horizons; a same-month correlation cannot support that at any gate strictness, and is equally consistent with both series reacting to a shared shock as with backlog-to-price transmission." }, { "key": "split_artifact", "text": "A positive result under this gate is not guaranteed stable to where the sample happens to be split in half. Measured 2026-07-26: on a shallower 222-month sample the split midpoint fell near 2017-03 and this study's one currently-stable pairing FAILED the gate there -- its two halves genuinely disagreed (2008-2017 peaked at lag 24 months, r=0.327; 2017-2026 at lag 0, r=0.784). Deepening the sample to 1992 (402 months) moved the midpoint to roughly 2009-09, folding that entire disagreement inside one half where the gate no longer exercises it. The instability was moved out of view, not resolved -- and the gate was deliberately NOT strengthened after seeing this, because tuning a pre-registered test after it produces a positive is the exact failure mode stating it up front exists to prevent." } ], "conclusion": "No forward model is warranted on this evidence." }, "power_nowcast": { "as_of": "2026-07-01", "months_graded": 11, "months_dropped": 0, "dropped_months": [], "carry_forward_mae": 5.463, "best_lambda": 0.25, "best_mae": 8.479, "verdict": "FAIL", "note": "A like-month year-ratio nowcast, backtested against realized retail prints before letting it touch the index. It failed the pre-registered backtest gate -- the selected pass-through candidate must beat both naive baselines (simple carry-forward and zero pass-through) on MAE with every month's error inside the bound, and it did not -- so the ops index stays on official retail data and the machinery ships config-gated." }, "storage_nowcast": { "official": "ppi_storage", "proxy": [ "dramex_nand_mlc64" ], "transform": "year_ratio", "smooth_days": 7, "as_of": "2026-08-01", "proxy_history_days": 2800, "months_graded": 75, "min_months": 6, "months_dropped": 0, "dropped_months": [], "carry_forward_mae": 2.991, "carry_forward_max": 59.126, "zero_lambda_mae": 3.485, "best_lambda": 0.1, "best_mae": 2.811, "best_max": 52.094, "lambda_ols": 0.1838, "regime_min_move": 0.5, "proxy_yoy_pct": 561.5, "regime_active": true, "verdict": "PASS", "tail_active": true, "note": "The switched NAND-spot tail beat both carry-forward and zero pass-through, with a worst month no worse than carry-forward's, and NAND is more than 50% away from a year ago, so the storage component rides it at the selected pass-through." } }