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        "month": "2027-02",
        "mom_pct": 0.0091,
        "index": 122.314366
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-03",
        "mom_pct": 0.0091,
        "index": 122.325557
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-04",
        "mom_pct": 0.0091,
        "index": 122.336748
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-05",
        "mom_pct": 0.0091,
        "index": 122.347941
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-06",
        "mom_pct": 0.0091,
        "index": 122.359134
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-07",
        "mom_pct": 0.0091,
        "index": 122.370329
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-08",
        "mom_pct": 0.0091,
        "index": 122.381524
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-09",
        "mom_pct": 0.0091,
        "index": 122.392721
      }
    ],
    "fuel": [
      {
        "month": "2026-10",
        "mom_pct": 2.1459,
        "index": 175.447408
      },
      {
        "month": "2026-11",
        "mom_pct": 2.1459,
        "index": 179.21231
      },
      {
        "month": "2026-12",
        "mom_pct": 0.0,
        "index": 179.21231
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-01",
        "mom_pct": 0.0,
        "index": 179.21231
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-02",
        "mom_pct": 0.0,
        "index": 179.21231
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-03",
        "mom_pct": 0.0,
        "index": 179.21231
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-04",
        "mom_pct": 0.0,
        "index": 179.21231
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-05",
        "mom_pct": 0.0,
        "index": 179.21231
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-06",
        "mom_pct": 0.0,
        "index": 179.21231
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-07",
        "mom_pct": 0.0,
        "index": 179.21231
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-08",
        "mom_pct": 0.0,
        "index": 179.21231
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-09",
        "mom_pct": 0.0,
        "index": 179.21231
      }
    ],
    "electricity": [
      {
        "month": "2026-10",
        "mom_pct": 0.0309,
        "index": 147.57158
      },
      {
        "month": "2026-11",
        "mom_pct": 0.0309,
        "index": 147.617111
      },
      {
        "month": "2026-12",
        "mom_pct": 0.0309,
        "index": 147.662657
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-01",
        "mom_pct": 0.0309,
        "index": 147.708216
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-02",
        "mom_pct": 0.0309,
        "index": 147.75379
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-03",
        "mom_pct": 0.0309,
        "index": 147.799378
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-04",
        "mom_pct": 0.0309,
        "index": 147.844979
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-05",
        "mom_pct": 0.0309,
        "index": 147.890595
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-06",
        "mom_pct": 0.0309,
        "index": 147.936225
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-07",
        "mom_pct": 0.0309,
        "index": 147.981869
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-08",
        "mom_pct": 0.0309,
        "index": 148.027527
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-09",
        "mom_pct": 0.0309,
        "index": 148.073199
      }
    ],
    "apparel": [
      {
        "month": "2026-10",
        "mom_pct": -0.267,
        "index": 111.549301
      },
      {
        "month": "2026-11",
        "mom_pct": -0.267,
        "index": 111.251461
      },
      {
        "month": "2026-12",
        "mom_pct": -0.267,
        "index": 110.954417
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-01",
        "mom_pct": -0.267,
        "index": 110.658166
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-02",
        "mom_pct": -0.267,
        "index": 110.362705
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-03",
        "mom_pct": -0.267,
        "index": 110.068034
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-04",
        "mom_pct": -0.267,
        "index": 109.774149
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-05",
        "mom_pct": -0.267,
        "index": 109.481049
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-06",
        "mom_pct": -0.267,
        "index": 109.188732
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-07",
        "mom_pct": -0.267,
        "index": 108.897195
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-08",
        "mom_pct": -0.267,
        "index": 108.606437
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-09",
        "mom_pct": -0.267,
        "index": 108.316454
      }
    ],
    "used_vehicles": [
      {
        "month": "2026-10",
        "mom_pct": -0.8042,
        "index": 134.875849
      },
      {
        "month": "2026-11",
        "mom_pct": -0.8042,
        "index": 133.791203
      },
      {
        "month": "2026-12",
        "mom_pct": -0.8042,
        "index": 132.715279
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-01",
        "mom_pct": -0.0644,
        "index": 132.629787
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-02",
        "mom_pct": -0.0644,
        "index": 132.54435
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-03",
        "mom_pct": -0.0644,
        "index": 132.458967
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-04",
        "mom_pct": -0.0644,
        "index": 132.37364
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-05",
        "mom_pct": -0.0644,
        "index": 132.288367
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-06",
        "mom_pct": -0.0644,
        "index": 132.20315
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-07",
        "mom_pct": -0.0644,
        "index": 132.117987
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-08",
        "mom_pct": -0.0644,
        "index": 132.03288
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-09",
        "mom_pct": -0.0644,
        "index": 131.947827
      }
    ],
    "nat_gas": [
      {
        "month": "2026-10",
        "mom_pct": 0.2597,
        "index": 154.722043
      },
      {
        "month": "2026-11",
        "mom_pct": -0.2761,
        "index": 154.294887
      },
      {
        "month": "2026-12",
        "mom_pct": -0.2761,
        "index": 153.86891
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-01",
        "mom_pct": -0.2761,
        "index": 153.444109
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-02",
        "mom_pct": -0.2761,
        "index": 153.020481
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-03",
        "mom_pct": -0.2761,
        "index": 152.598022
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-04",
        "mom_pct": 0.2597,
        "index": 152.99433
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-05",
        "mom_pct": 0.2597,
        "index": 153.391668
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-06",
        "mom_pct": 0.2597,
        "index": 153.790037
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-07",
        "mom_pct": 0.2597,
        "index": 154.189441
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-08",
        "mom_pct": 0.2597,
        "index": 154.589882
      },
      {
        "month": "2027-09",
        "mom_pct": 0.2597,
        "index": 154.991363
      }
    ]
  },
  "parameters": {
    "model": "macrogauge_outlook_v1",
    "horizon_months": 12,
    "history_months": 25,
    "baseline_annual_pct": 2.0,
    "volatility_lookback_months": 60,
    "volatility_fallback_pp": 0.35,
    "trailing_median_months": 12,
    "component_trend_annual_cap_pct": 20.0,
    "shelter_half_life_months": 6,
    "fuel": {
      "lookback_months": 2,
      "pass_through": 0.85,
      "horizon_months": 2,
      "series": {
        "fmp_rbob": 0.6,
        "fmp_wti": 0.4
      }
    },
    "food_home": {
      "lookback_months": 3,
      "pass_through": 0.15,
      "horizon_months": 4,
      "series": [
        "fmp_corn",
        "fmp_wheat",
        "fmp_soybeans",
        "fmp_soybean_oil",
        "fmp_coffee",
        "fmp_sugar",
        "fmp_cocoa",
        "fmp_live_cattle"
      ]
    },
    "nat_gas": {
      "series": "fmp_natgas",
      "lookback_months": 3,
      "pass_through": 0.35,
      "start_month": 2,
      "end_month": 6
    },
    "used_vehicles": {
      "series": "manheim_uvvi_m",
      "lookback_months": 3,
      "pass_through": 0.7,
      "horizon_months": 3
    },
    "shelter": {
      "series": [
        "zori_us",
        "aptlist_us"
      ]
    },
    "new_vehicles": {
      "trend_source": "CUUR0000SETA01"
    },
    "wages": {
      "series": "FRBATLWGT3MMAUMHWGO",
      "anchor_weight": 0.25,
      "service_components": [
        "food_away",
        "medical",
        "recreation",
        "education_comm",
        "other"
      ]
    },
    "goods_pipeline": {
      "series": [
        "PPIACO",
        "PCUOMFGOMFG",
        "IREXPETCOM"
      ],
      "lookback_months": 3,
      "strength": 0.5,
      "annual_cap_pp": 1.0,
      "components": [
        "new_vehicles",
        "apparel",
        "other"
      ]
    }
  },
  "method": "Each of the 14 gauge components receives a 12-month path from forward drivers or the 12-month median of its own real complete-month changes (stopped at its last observation, capped at \u00b120%/yr). Component index levels are CPI-weighted; YoY uses actual year-ago levels, so base effects are exact.",
  "disclaimer": "Model projection, not a promise or investment advice. The shaded range is a realized-volatility band, not a calibrated confidence interval."
}