Economy Heat Check −100 cooling · +100 heating
Heat score
-9.0
100.0% indicator coverage · 2026-10-02T16:54:03Z
Biggest movers: 30yr mortgage rate is cooling (z -2.26) and Consumer sentiment is heating (z +1.78).
Group subtotals
prices
-0.75
weight 25 · 5/5 live
real economy
-0.26
weight 25 · 5/5 live
pipeline
+0.09
weight 20 · 4/4 live
housing
-0.57
weight 15 · 4/4 live
money expectations
+0.92
weight 15 · 3/3 live
Indicator detail
| Indicator | Group | Signal | Momentum | Sign | Signed z | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI, all items (SA) CPIAUCSL | prices | COOLING | 0.05% | ↑ heats | -1.69 | 2026-08-01 |
| Core CPI (SA) CPILFESL | prices | COOLING | 0.49% | ↑ heats | -0.67 | 2026-08-01 |
| PCE price index PCEPI | prices | COOLING | 0.26% | ↑ heats | -1.11 | 2026-08-01 |
| PPI, all commodities PPIACO | prices | COOLING | -0.78% | ↑ heats | -0.63 | 2026-08-01 |
| 5yr breakeven inflation T5YIE | prices | HEATING | 0.12pp | ↑ heats | 0.35 | 2026-10-01 |
| Nonfarm payrolls PAYEMS | real economy | COOLING | 0.10% | ↑ heats | -1.00 | 2026-09-01 |
| Unemployment rate UNRATE | real economy | COOLING | 0.00pp | ↓ heats | -0.67 | 2026-09-01 |
| Industrial production INDPRO | real economy | HEATING | 0.42% | ↑ heats | 0.35 | 2026-08-01 |
| Retail sales RSAFS | real economy | NEUTRAL | 0.87% | ↑ heats | 0.04 | 2026-08-01 |
| Real disposable income DSPIC96 | real economy | NEUTRAL | 0.64% | ↑ heats | 0.01 | 2026-08-01 |
| Initial claims ICSA | pipeline | HEATING | -9.22% | ↓ heats | 0.76 | 2026-09-26 |
| Continued claims CCSA | pipeline | HEATING | -5.81% | ↓ heats | 0.72 | 2026-09-19 |
| PPI, manufacturing PCUOMFGOMFG | pipeline | COOLING | -0.60% | ↑ heats | -0.70 | 2026-08-01 |
| Fed funds rate FEDFUNDS | pipeline | COOLING | 0.12pp | ↓ heats | -0.40 | 2026-09-01 |
| Housing starts HOUST | housing | HEATING | 7.87% | ↑ heats | 0.74 | 2026-08-01 |
| Building permits PERMIT | housing | NEUTRAL | -0.50% | ↑ heats | -0.09 | 2026-08-01 |
| Case-Shiller home prices (SA) CSUSHPISA | housing | COOLING | 0.54% | ↑ heats | -0.64 | 2026-07-01 |
| 30yr mortgage rate pmms_30yr | housing | COOLING | 0.85pp | ↓ heats | -2.26 | 2026-10-01 |
| M2 money stock M2SL | money expectations | HEATING | 1.43% | ↑ heats | 0.43 | 2026-08-01 |
| Consumer sentiment UMCSENT | money expectations | HEATING | 15.40% | ↑ heats | 1.78 | 2026-08-01 |
| 10yr–2yr Treasury spread T10Y2Y | money expectations | HEATING | 0.11pp | ↑ heats | 0.55 | 2026-10-01 |
Each indicator’s momentum over roughly three months (3 monthly, 13 weekly, or 63 daily periods; rates and spreads as point changes, everything else as % change) is z-scored against its own available history, clamped to ±2.5, and signed so positive means heating. Group weights: Prices 25, Real Economy 25, Pipeline 20, Housing 15, Money & Expectations 15. Group tiles show the published per-group subtotals (mean z, weight, available/expected inputs); row badges bucket the published z — HEATING above +0.25, COOLING below −0.25, NEUTRAL between.