CPI Preview evergreen forecast → result
Bottom-up forecast for 2026-09, frozen and graded when the BLS print arrives.
Ensemble CPI · MoM (SA)
0.49%
2026-09 · releases 2026-10-14
Benchmark error scale
0.20–0.78%
±0.29pp = MAE of a simple 3-month-average benchmark over 110 vintage-true prints (naive last-month 0.25pp) — not this ensemble's track record, not a calibrated interval
Forecasters live
3
Unavailable benchmarks receive zero weight
| Forecaster | MoM | Type | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macrogauge | 0.43% | MODEL | 2026-10-02 |
| Cleveland | 0.53% | BENCHMARK | 2026-09-30 |
| Kalshi | 0.52% | BENCHMARK | 2026-10-02 |
Ensemble core CPI · MoM (SA)
0.16%
CPI less food & energy — our bottom-up rows ex food/energy vs Cleveland Fed and the Kalshi core ladder
| Forecaster | MoM | Type | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macrogauge | 0.11% | MODEL | 2026-10-02 |
| Cleveland | 0.20% | BENCHMARK | 2026-09-11 |
| Kalshi | 0.17% | BENCHMARK | 2026-10-02 |
Next PCE print
PCE nowcast · MoM (SA)
0.35%
Sep 2026 · releases 2026-10-29 · bridged from our CPI nowcast 0.43%
Core PCE nowcast · MoM (SA)
0.19%
bridged from our core CPI nowcast 0.11%
Bridge
CPI
CPI only — PPI for 2026-09 not printed yet (ppi_pce_airline, ppi_pce_physician, ppi_pce_hospital, ppi_pce_portfolio)
| Forecaster | MoM | Type | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macrogauge | 0.35% | MODEL | 2026-10-02 |
| Cleveland | 0.43% | BENCHMARK | 2026-09-30 |
Core PCE (PCE less food & energy):
| Forecaster | MoM | Type | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macrogauge | 0.19% | MODEL | 2026-10-02 |
| Cleveland | 0.25% | BENCHMARK | 2026-09-30 |
PCE targets its own release (more on /pce): it rides the published CPI once that month is out, our CPI nowcast before.
Last print — forecast → result
Last print · 2026-08 (SA MoM)
0.40%
released 2026-09-11 · first print
Macrogauge
0.29%
miss -0.10pp · converted from NSA
Cleveland Fed
0.36%
miss -0.04pp
Kalshi
0.32%
miss -0.08pp
Component receipts
| Component | MoM | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelter (owned) | 0.25%modeled | 25.9% | 0.065pp |
| Everything else (CPI residual) | 0.13%modeled | 17.8% | 0.023pp |
| Food at home | 0.33%modeled | 8.2% | 0.027pp |
| Medical care | 0.11%modeled | 8.2% | 0.009pp |
| Rent | 0.23%modeled | 7.7% | 0.018pp |
| Food away from home | 0.25%modeled | 5.3% | 0.013pp |
| Education & comm | 0.16%modeled | 5.8% | 0.010pp |
| Recreation | 0.23%modeled | 5.1% | 0.011pp |
| New vehicles | 0.09%modeled | 3.7% | 0.004pp |
| Gasoline | 6.08% | 3.9% | 0.234pp |
| Electricity | 0.03%modeled | 2.5% | 0.001pp |
| Apparel | -0.18%modeled | 2.4% | -0.004pp |
| Used cars & trucks | -0.83% | 2.7% | -0.022pp |
| Piped gas | 0.26%modeled | 0.7% | 0.002pp |
Status: LIVE. This is a nowcast, graded against the first print. Rows tagged “modeled” have no observation inside the target month yet: they carry the component’s own trailing-median trend (plus a disclosed futures-driver slice where one applies) instead of a fabricated 0.00%.