Rates & Liquidity the curve, the spreads, and the plumbing behind them
Eight Treasury tenors, breakevens, the high-yield spread, the dollar, the Fed's balance sheet and the mortgage spread — daily FRED series the pipeline was already collecting and never showed. Every derived number here is arithmetic on those levels: 2s10s is DGS10 − DGS2, the real 10-year is DGS10 − T10YIE, net liquidity is WALCL − TGA − RRP.
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MacroGauge 10-year Treasury yield (DGS10), 2026-09-30, 5.29% — https://macrogauge.vercel.app/ratesThe curve — today vs 30 days and a year ago
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| Tenor | Yield | 1d | 30d | 1y | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M DGS1MO | 4.02% | −0.02pp | +0.17pp | −0.18pp | 2026-09-30 |
| 3M DGS3MO | 4.20% | −0.05pp | +0.29pp | +0.18pp | 2026-09-30 |
| 6M DGS6MO | 4.33% | −0.03pp | +0.34pp | +0.50pp | 2026-09-30 |
| 1Y DGS1 | 4.54% | −0.04pp | +0.38pp | +0.86pp | 2026-09-30 |
| 2Y DGS2 | 4.88% | −0.01pp | +0.54pp | +1.28pp | 2026-09-30 |
| 5Y DGS5 | 5.09% | +0.03pp | +0.60pp | +1.35pp | 2026-09-30 |
| 10Y DGS10 | 5.29% | +0.03pp | +0.54pp | +1.13pp | 2026-09-30 |
| 30Y DGS30 | 5.64% | +0.05pp | +0.39pp | +0.91pp | 2026-09-30 |
Market-implied Fed path — Kalshi FOMC ladders vs the target
| Meeting | Expected upper | vs today | P(cut) | P(hold) | P(hike) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | 4.05% | +5bp | 1% | 80% | 19% |
| Dec 9, 2026 | 4.24% | +24bp | 6% | 18% | 77% |
Kalshi KXFED ladders (upper bound above X% after each FOMC meeting): bid/ask mids, rungs wider than 10c dropped, survival curve forced monotone; a meeting publishes only when its liquid rungs bracket the distribution. Expected upper bound on the 25bp grid; cut/hold/hike are vs the upper bound now in effect (last settled KXFED meeting), cumulative to each meeting. Reference upper bound 4.00%; quotes as of 2026-10-02. Far-dated meetings rarely trade two-sided, so the table is usually the next one or two meetings. A betting-market read, not a forecast of ours.
Spreads — 2s10s, 3m10y and the real 10-year, since 2019
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Inflation compensation, credit and the dollar
Fed liquidity — balance sheet, TGA, reverse repo
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Mortgage spread — 30-year fixed over the 10-year
Weekly Freddie Mac PMMS prints against the 10-year read on or within seven days before each print. Units are normalized once, in the writer: WALCL and TGA arrive in millions of dollars, RRP in billions; all three publish in billions. Nothing here feeds the gauge — it is the transmission channel, shown beside it.