Outlook the next 12 months, component by component
The headline projection from the homepage, plus the drill-down it strips out: each of the 14 components’ published forecast path, and the forward market driver (or own-trend fallback) behind it.
Headline path — next 12 months
Each of the 14 gauge components receives a 12-month path from forward drivers or the 12-month median of its own real complete-month changes (stopped at its last observation, capped at ±20%/yr). Component index levels are CPI-weighted; YoY uses actual year-ago levels, so base effects are exact.
Model projection, not a promise or investment advice. The shaded range is a realized-volatility band, not a calibrated confidence interval.
Model parameters — published with every run
macrogauge_outlook_v1 · horizon 12mo · baseline 2%/yr · sigma window 60mo — expand for every knob
{
"model": "macrogauge_outlook_v1",
"horizon_months": 12,
"history_months": 25,
"baseline_annual_pct": 2,
"volatility_lookback_months": 60,
"volatility_fallback_pp": 0.35,
"trailing_median_months": 12,
"component_trend_annual_cap_pct": 20,
"shelter_half_life_months": 6,
"fuel": {
"lookback_months": 2,
"pass_through": 0.85,
"horizon_months": 2,
"series": {
"fmp_rbob": 0.6,
"fmp_wti": 0.4
}
},
"food_home": {
"lookback_months": 3,
"pass_through": 0.15,
"horizon_months": 4,
"series": [
"fmp_corn",
"fmp_wheat",
"fmp_soybeans",
"fmp_soybean_oil",
"fmp_coffee",
"fmp_sugar",
"fmp_cocoa",
"fmp_live_cattle"
]
},
"nat_gas": {
"series": "fmp_natgas",
"lookback_months": 3,
"pass_through": 0.35,
"start_month": 2,
"end_month": 6
},
"used_vehicles": {
"series": "manheim_uvvi_m",
"lookback_months": 3,
"pass_through": 0.7,
"horizon_months": 3
},
"shelter": {
"series": [
"zori_us",
"aptlist_us"
]
},
"new_vehicles": {
"trend_source": "CUUR0000SETA01"
},
"wages": {
"series": "FRBATLWGT3MMAUMHWGO",
"anchor_weight": 0.25,
"service_components": [
"food_away",
"medical",
"recreation",
"education_comm",
"other"
]
},
"goods_pipeline": {
"series": [
"PPIACO",
"PCUOMFGOMFG",
"IREXPETCOM"
],
"lookback_months": 3,
"strength": 0.5,
"annual_cap_pp": 1,
"components": [
"new_vehicles",
"apparel",
"other"
]
}
}Component paths
| Component | Weight | Now YoY · Sep 2026 | +1mo MoM · Oct 2026 | +6mo MoM · Mar 2027 | +12mo MoM · Sep 2027 | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelter (owned) | 26.2% | 1.52% | +0.20% | +0.19% | +0.18% | shelter |
| Everything else (CPI residual) | 18.1% | 3.21% | +0.05% | +0.07% | +0.10% | wagesgoods pipeline |
| Medical care | 8.3% | 1.56% | +0.12% | +0.14% | +0.17% | wages |
| Food at home | 8.0% | 2.19% | +0.33% | +0.12% | +0.12% | food home |
| Rent | 7.5% | 1.52% | +0.20% | +0.19% | +0.18% | shelter |
| Food away from home | 5.7% | 3.37% | +0.25% | +0.26% | +0.27% | wages |
| Education & comm | 5.6% | 2.14% | +0.17% | +0.19% | +0.21% | wages |
| Recreation | 5.3% | 2.68% | +0.23% | +0.24% | +0.25% | wages |
| New vehicles | 4.3% | 0.57% | +0.01% | +0.01% | +0.01% | new vehiclesgoods pipeline |
| Gasoline | 2.9% | 40.73% | +2.15% | 0.00% | 0.00% | fuel |
| Apparel | 2.5% | 3.61% | −0.27% | −0.27% | −0.27% | goods pipeline |
| Electricity | 2.5% | 3.79% | +0.03% | +0.03% | +0.03% | own 12-mo median |
| Used cars & trucks | 2.4% | -1.74% | −0.80% | −0.06% | −0.06% | used vehicles |
| Piped gas | 0.8% | 4.39% | +0.26% | −0.28% | +0.26% | nat gas |
Drivers
| Driver | Reading | Status | Effect | Sources | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel futures (RBOB 60% / WTI 40%, 2mo) | +5.10% | live | 85% pass-through over 2 months, then flat | fmp_rbob + fmp_wti | 2026-09-30 |
| New-lease rents (ZORI + Apartment List, 12mo median) | +0.21%/mo | live | drives rent and CPI-comparable OER; 6-month half-life | zori_us + aptlist_us | 2026-09-01 |
| Agricultural futures composite (8 contracts, 3mo) | +5.65% | live | 15% farm-share pass-through over 4 months | fmp_corn + fmp_wheat + fmp_soybeans + fmp_soybean_oil + fmp_coffee + fmp_sugar + fmp_cocoa + fmp_live_cattle | 2026-09-30 |
| Henry Hub natural gas (3mo) | -7.57% | live | 35% pass-through into utility rates in months 2–6 | fmp_natgas | 2026-09-30 |
| Manheim used wholesale (3mo) | -3.15% | live | 70% retail pass-through over 3 months, on the official used-car trend | manheim_uvvi_m | 2026-09-01 |
| New vehicles (own complete-month trend) | +0.09%/mo | fallback | KBB ATP is not yet a stable production input | CUUR0000SETA01 | 2026-09-01 |
| Atlanta Fed wage growth | +4.10%/yr | live | 25% terminal anchor for food-away and sticky services | FRBATLWGT3MMAUMHWGO | 2026-08-01 |
| Ex-energy pipeline (PPI + imports, 0.5× strength) | -1.00pp/yr | live | tilt capped at ±1pp/yr on new_vehicles, apparel, other | PPIACO + PCUOMFGOMFG + IREXPETCOM | 2026-08-01 |
Each of the 14 gauge components receives a 12-month path from forward drivers or the 12-month median of its own real complete-month changes (stopped at its last observation, capped at ±20%/yr). Component index levels are CPI-weighted; YoY uses actual year-ago levels, so base effects are exact. “Now YoY” is each component’s macrogauge YoY at Sep 2026, read from the published quilt grid. Path columns are the model’s published month-over-month steps at horizons +1, +6 and +12 — the pipeline does not publish per-component YoY paths, so none is derived here. Driver badges follow the model’s own configuration: direct key matches, the wage anchor’s service components, the goods-pipeline tilt list, and the shelter driver feeding both rent and owned shelter. Components with no forward driver ride the trailing median of their own complete-month changes.
Model projection, not a promise or investment advice. The shaded range is a realized-volatility band, not a calibrated confidence interval.