Gauge Gap where ours differs from BLS

Laspeyres contribution arithmetic decomposes our gap against a 14-component reconstruction of the BLS basket — close to, but not identical to, the headline gap vs the official print.

vs official CPI

Macrogauge (CPI-comparable)

3.24%

−0.16pp vs Aug 2026 official CPI 3.40% · 39% live · 2026-10-02

vs official CPI

Cost of Living

5.85%

+2.45pp vs Aug 2026 official CPI 3.40% · 39% live · 2026-10-02

vs official CPI

CPI-Tracker

3.72%

+0.32pp vs Aug 2026 official CPI 3.40% · 3% live · 2026-10-02

vs BLS services less rent of shelter

Supercore

2.71%

−0.39pp vs Aug 2026 BLS services less rent of shelter 3.10% · 0% live · 2026-08-01

vs PCEPI

PCE-weighted

3.22%

−0.20pp vs Aug 2026 PCEPI 3.42% · 19% live · 2026-10-02

Export data

Component	Weight	Mode	Ours YoY	BLS YoY (Aug 2026)	Gap	Contribution
Shelter (owned)	26.2%	LIVE	+1.5%	+3.1%	−1.56pp	−0.41pp
Gasoline	3.0%	LIVE	+39.9%	+27.4%	+12.48pp	+0.37pp
Rent	7.5%	LIVE	+1.5%	+2.8%	−1.23pp	−0.09pp
Used cars & trucks	2.4%	LIVE	−1.6%	−2.3%	+0.67pp	+0.02pp
Everything else (CPI residual)	18.1%	BLS-CF	+3.2%	+3.2%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Food at home	8.0%	BLS-CF	+2.2%	+2.2%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Medical care	8.3%	BLS-CF	+1.6%	+1.6%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Food away from home	5.6%	BLS-CF	+3.4%	+3.4%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Education & comm	5.6%	BLS-CF	+2.1%	+2.1%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Recreation	5.3%	BLS-CF	+2.7%	+2.7%	0.00pp	0.00pp
New vehicles	4.3%	BLS-CF	+0.6%	+0.6%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Electricity	2.4%	BLS-CF	+3.8%	+3.8%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Apparel	2.6%	BLS-CF	+3.6%	+3.6%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Piped gas	0.8%	BLS-CF	+4.4%	+4.4%	0.00pp	0.00pp
Total gap vs BLS basket (reconstructed)						−0.11pp

gap contribution = weight × (ours − BLS) · ours as of 2026-10-02 · BLS-CF rows carry the official print, so their gap is 0 by construction · the total is vs our 14-component reconstruction of the BLS basket, so it differs slightly from the headline gap vs the official CPI print

Gap contribution over time — ours minus BLS, by component

loading component contributions…