MACROGAUGE
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Inflation Matrix models × targets

Ensemble CPI · MoM (SA)
0.49%
2026-09 · releases 2026-10-14
Benchmark error scale
0.20–0.78%
±0.29pp = MAE of a simple 3-month-average benchmark over 110 vintage-true prints (naive last-month 0.25pp) — not this ensemble's track record, not a calibrated interval
Forecasters live
3
Unavailable benchmarks receive zero weight
ForecasterMoMTypeAs of
Macrogauge0.43%MODEL2026-10-02
Cleveland0.53%BENCHMARK2026-09-30
Kalshi0.52%BENCHMARK2026-10-02
Ensemble core CPI · MoM (SA)
0.16%
CPI less food & energy — our bottom-up rows ex food/energy vs Cleveland Fed and the Kalshi core ladder
ForecasterMoMTypeAs of
Macrogauge0.11%MODEL2026-10-02
Cleveland0.20%BENCHMARK2026-09-11
Kalshi0.17%BENCHMARK2026-10-02
Export data
↓ JSON
CPI bridge
0.43%
2026-09 MoM · LIVE
PCE bridge
0.35%
2026-09 MoM · 24 rolling observations
NFP
69k
payroll momentum − claims delta

Every inflation measure

Our daily gauge and tracker, the official CPI prints, the Fed's underlying-inflation cuts, pipeline pressure, and market expectations — one table, each with its own as-of and cadence. Values are shown verbatim from source except the pipeline price indexes, which are computed year-over-year off a raw index level, and the effective tariff rate, which is customs duties divided by goods imports.

MeasureLatestAs ofCadence
OURS (DAILY)
Macrogauge (CPI-comparable)3.24 % YoYOct 2, 2026daily
Tracker (official-shelter)3.72 % YoYOct 2, 2026daily
Macrogauge 16% trimmed mean (14 components)2.15 % YoYOct 2026monthly
Macrogauge weighted median (14 components)2.14 % YoYOct 2026monthly
OFFICIAL
CPI-U (headline)3.40 % YoYAug 2026monthly
Core CPI (ex food & energy)2.45 % YoYAug 2026monthly
UNDERLYING
Median CPI2.10 % ann. rate (MoM)Aug 2026monthly
16% trimmed-mean CPI2.67 % ann. rate (MoM)Aug 2026monthly
Sticky-price core CPI2.70 % YoYAug 2026monthly
Dallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE2.19 % YoYAug 2026monthly
Flexible-price core CPI1.09 % YoYAug 2026monthly
Core PCE (the Fed's target)3.01 % YoY (computed)Aug 2026monthly
NY Fed Multivariate Core Trend2.29 % (trend)Aug 2026monthly
PIPELINE
PPI all commodities9.85 % YoY (computed)Aug 2026monthly
Import prices ex-petroleum3.94 % YoY (computed)Aug 2026monthly
Import prices, goods from China2.99 % YoY (computed)Aug 2026monthly
Core goods CPI (tariff pass-through)0.66 % YoY (computed)Aug 2026monthly
NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index1.06 std dev from avgAug 2026monthly
Effective tariff rate (customs duties / goods imports)8.22 % of goods importsApr 2026quarterly
EXPECTATIONS
5-year breakeven2.36 %Oct 1, 2026daily
10-year breakeven2.36 %Oct 1, 2026daily
UMich 1-year expectation4.00 %Aug 2026monthly
5y5y forward breakeven2.36 %Oct 1, 2026daily
Cleveland Fed 1-year expected inflation2.64 %Sep 2026monthly
Cleveland Fed 10-year expected inflation2.57 %Sep 2026monthly
NY Fed SCE consumers, 1-year median3.58 %Aug 2026monthly
NY Fed SCE consumers, 3-year median3.19 %Aug 2026monthly
NY Fed SCE consumers, 5-year median3.01 %Aug 2026monthly
Atlanta Fed BIE firms, year-ahead unit costs (median)2.36 %Sep 2026monthly
Atlanta Fed BIE firms, 5-10-year unit costs (mean)2.77 %Sep 2026quarterly
INTERNATIONAL
Euro-area HICP3.25 % YoY (computed)Aug 2026monthly
Euro-area core HICP (ex energy, food, alcohol, tobacco)2.38 % YoY (computed)Aug 2026monthly
LABOR COSTS
Employment Cost Index, total comp3.38 % YoY (computed)Apr 2026quarterly
Unit labor costs, nonfarm business1.40 % YoY (computed)Apr 2026quarterly

Effective tariff rate 8.22% of goods imports · 2026Q2

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Federal customs duties (B235RC1Q027SBEA) over imports of goods (A255RC1Q027SBEA), both BEA NIPA quarterly at seasonally adjusted annual rates, so the annualization cancels. This is the duty actually collected per dollar of goods imported — below the statutory rate whenever exemptions, trade diversion or collection lags bite. Quarterly, a month after the quarter closes.